Ash Barty, a 23 year old Australian, took over the Tennis World in March 2019 when she beat three of the top ten players including Petra Kvitova, Karolina pliskova and Karolina Slijkova, on her way to winning Miami Open.

She defeated Marketa Vondrousova, in the French Open finals two months later. In the final match, she lost only four games. Barty was the first Australian to win the tournament in over 40 years. By the end of the month, she had become the number one player in the entire world.

Barty, who had been away from tennis for 11 months due to the Covid-19 pandemic in Australia, returned in 2021 and won the Yarra valley Classic, the Miami Open and the Stuttgart Open. She also went on to win Wimbledon and the Australian Open in 2022.

Barty, at just 25, was the face and voice of tennis. Barty had taken over the torch from Serena Williams and spent 114 consecutive weeks ( , 121 total weeks), ranked the top player in the World through March 2022.

She retired .

Barty, in an emotional interview, said: “It is the first time that I have actually said it aloud, and yes, it’s difficult to say.” But I am so happy and ready. I know in my heart that this is the right thing for me. I have done this before but with a different feeling. Tennis has fulfilled all my dreams and more. I am so grateful for it. I’m ready to chase new dreams and put down my racquets.

Rarely do you see athletes leave a game when they are at their best.

Jordan retired from basketball as the undisputed GOD before playing two forgettable seasons for the Wizards. Tom Brady sacrificed his marriage despite having won more Super Bowls that any franchise ever in the history. He was 45 years old and had just started his season with the Buccaneers. Shaquille o’Neal was the basketball’s dominant center throughout his career. He averaged 24 point per game. He struggled on the court with the Boston Celtics in his 19th year, scoring just 9 points a game over 37 games.

Ash Barty is the rare sports star who has walked away from his dreams.

A viral tweet by Jason DeBolt was posted on my timeline 23 months ago. DeBolt was a 39-year-old software developer who worked for Amazon Web Services. He announced he would “retire from the corporate world”, after his portfolio of 14850 Tesla shares had reached $11,944,889 value.

DeBolt invested $19,000 in March 2013 and over the next six years, poured $300,000.00 into the electric car manufacturer. By January 2021 these contributions were 40xed, resulting in a portfolio of $12,000,000.

Jason won the game. He decided to continue playing.

 

Today, I am retiring from the corporate sector at 39 years old.

No plans to sell any shares in the near future. $TSLA https://t.co/wCDZJlPdoX

— Jason DeBolt (@jasondebolt)
Jan 7, 2021

Tesla’s stock continued to rise over the following year. From a split-adjusted value of $272 per share on January 7, 2021, to $400 just 10 months later. Tesla’s value was $1.23T and DeBolt’s stake was approximately $18,200,000. ” to the moon” , as they say.

Tesla’s stock, which peaked at $400 a year earlier, has fallen to $180 and taken DeBolt’s portfolio along with it.

Last week, DeBolt, who calls himself an “All in Tesla Investor since 2013”, was down by $11M compared to his previous peak and $4M compared to the tweet he sent in January 2021. DeBolt, who still has around $8M in winnings, is thinking about selling his home to purchase more shares.

 

I’m now more bullish than ever on Tesla, despite the fact that I’m down by $11 million since last year.

I am seriously considering selling my home to buy more stocks. I’m like wtf.

Tesla’s revenue will continue to grow at 50% per year (as in 2014) and profits even faster.

— Jason DeBolt (@jasondebolt)
Dec 8, 2022

Jason or anyone else could not have sold Tesla shares at $400 in November. Had he sold Tesla the day he quit, and instead bought an S&P 500 Index Fund, he’d be up $400,000 today, rather than $4,000,000 in the past two years.

You’re putting your life at risk to make (hopefully!) millions you don’t need. Jason is not alone.

In the past year, countless fortunes have disappeared as growth stocks, cryptocurrency, and other speculative investments have crashed.

When I read these stories, my first thought is “Why didn’t they sell?” The truth is, anyone who would’ve sold wouldn’t have stayed this long.

To cite myself in February:

How do you explain to someone that 50x sales was an outrageous valuation when they made their fortunes by ignoring valuations throughout their entire investing career?What was thought of as well-researched beta was in fact a factor bet based on growth and technology. No amount of research can save a portfolio that is not well positioned when market trends change. No one who believed it was a factor-bet, held the stock until February 2021’s highs. And no one who really believed in their growth stocks thought they should sell…

Musk is the most successful entrepreneur in this generation. Tesla’s growth over the past decade has been phenomenal. The majority of Tesla’s gains came from the stock’s valuation, not its company growth.

Many investors viewed Tesla’s EV adoption as the best bet, and they were compensated for it. What happens if you bet on Tesla for the wrong reason and valuations fall? What if you didn’t sell because $1T was still too low for the best EV company ever?

I, Ten months ago

You wouldn’t think your asset was overvalued if you owned bitcoin between $1,000 and $60,000 or Tesla between $20 and $400. You didn’t bet on bitcoin hitting $70,000. You bet on bitcoin to replace the current financial system or to at least continue to appreciate through inflation. Tesla’s valuation expansion was not going to scare away your interest, even before the company became a $10T business with robo-taxis.

You would have lost millions if you had listened a year earlier to critics. Why would you sell just when you’re starting to see your predictions come true? Your portfolio is worth 10M dollars. The euphoria of having your convictions confirmed is priceless. That’s priceless. This same conviction, which has spawned so many stories of rags to riches, keeps these investors from selling and sending them back into their rags.

Rarely is wealth created by speculative actions secured through rational action. Most speculators will continue to speculate until they, like athletes who have passed their prime, quietly leave the scene.